A discussion of (almost) all aspects of climate change
Sunday, January 28, 2007
Friday, January 26, 2007
Interesting article on peer review
The CS Monitor had an interesting article on peer review.
My view is that peer review is a highly effective filter. But one should not expect too much from it. While it stops most errors from being published, it cannot catch every problem. Reviewers occasionally fail to notice an obvious mistake, and there are some types of error that reviewers usually cannot catch. They cannot tell if the author misread observations of an instrument, or wrote a number down wrong, or if chemical samples used in an experiment were contaminated. Moreover, peer review often cannot identify clever fraud, such as the rare cases where the scientific work being reported was not really done at all.
But peer review is only the first of many levels of testing and quality control applied to scientific claims. When an important or novel claim is published in a journal, other scientists test the result by trying to replicate it, often using different data sets, experimental designs, or analytic techniques. While one scientist might make a mistake, do a sloppy experiment, or misinterpret their results (and peer reviewers might fail to catch it), it is unlikely that several independent groups will make the same mistake. Consequently, as other scientists repeat an observation, or examine a question using different approaches and get the same answer, the community increasingly comes to accept the claim as correct.
Peer review is also important for evaluating proposals to funding agencies as well as for things like tenure and promotion. It seems difficult to imagine how an alternative system for those things would work. I suspect that changes in the peer review system will eventually occur as our ways of communicating changes, but those changes will be slow.
My view is that peer review is a highly effective filter. But one should not expect too much from it. While it stops most errors from being published, it cannot catch every problem. Reviewers occasionally fail to notice an obvious mistake, and there are some types of error that reviewers usually cannot catch. They cannot tell if the author misread observations of an instrument, or wrote a number down wrong, or if chemical samples used in an experiment were contaminated. Moreover, peer review often cannot identify clever fraud, such as the rare cases where the scientific work being reported was not really done at all.
But peer review is only the first of many levels of testing and quality control applied to scientific claims. When an important or novel claim is published in a journal, other scientists test the result by trying to replicate it, often using different data sets, experimental designs, or analytic techniques. While one scientist might make a mistake, do a sloppy experiment, or misinterpret their results (and peer reviewers might fail to catch it), it is unlikely that several independent groups will make the same mistake. Consequently, as other scientists repeat an observation, or examine a question using different approaches and get the same answer, the community increasingly comes to accept the claim as correct.
Peer review is also important for evaluating proposals to funding agencies as well as for things like tenure and promotion. It seems difficult to imagine how an alternative system for those things would work. I suspect that changes in the peer review system will eventually occur as our ways of communicating changes, but those changes will be slow.
Thursday, January 25, 2007
Tuesday, January 23, 2007
Front page in today's WSJ
A front page story in today's Wall Street Journal (I don't have a link, sorry) begins:
We are now experiencing a tectonic shift in the political landscape on the issue of climate change. The skeptics are disappearing --- both in numbers and in influence. At the same time, the debate is shifting from "should we do something" to "what should we do?"
The global warming debate is shifting from science to economics.I sincerely hope that the WSJ editorial page reads this article.
For years, the fight over the Earth's rising temperature has been mostly over what's causing it: fossil-fuel emissions or natural factors beyond man's control. Now, some of the country's biggest industrial companies are acknowledging that fossil fuels are a major culprit whose emissions should be cut significantly over time.
...
The broadening, if incomplete, consensus that fossil fuels are at least a big part of the global-warming problem signals real change in the environmental debate. The biggest question going forward no longer is whether fossil fuel emissions should be curbed. It's who will foot the bill for the cleanup --- and that battle is heating up.
We are now experiencing a tectonic shift in the political landscape on the issue of climate change. The skeptics are disappearing --- both in numbers and in influence. At the same time, the debate is shifting from "should we do something" to "what should we do?"
Monday, January 22, 2007
Saturday, January 20, 2007
Climate change with Al Gore, II
For those interested in Al Gore's climate project training (which I blogged about here), here are news stories of Climate Project Presenters:
Miss Rhode Island spreads the word
Wisconsin resident and businessman
Grammy-winner Kathy Mattea gives presentation in Utah
Oregon's Secretary of State presents across the State
Canadian banker reaches investment community
Cincinnati's climate messenger
Allentown messenger
New Yorkers head to Nashville to become messengers
Fort Smith Arkansas messenger
Miss Rhode Island spreads the word
Wisconsin resident and businessman
Grammy-winner Kathy Mattea gives presentation in Utah
Oregon's Secretary of State presents across the State
Canadian banker reaches investment community
Cincinnati's climate messenger
Allentown messenger
New Yorkers head to Nashville to become messengers
Fort Smith Arkansas messenger
Friday, January 19, 2007
Wednesday, January 17, 2007
Thursday, January 11, 2007
Wednesday, January 03, 2007
Least surprising headlines of the day
ExxonMobil paid to mislead public Article here
ExxonMobil cultivates global warming doubt Article here
ExxonMobil cultivates global warming doubt Article here
Sunday, December 31, 2006
Wednesday, December 27, 2006
Tuesday, December 26, 2006
Friday, December 22, 2006
Thursday, December 21, 2006
Nature ends public peer-review trial
According to this story, Nature is scrapping its attempt to open up the peer review system.
As the article says,
As a dedicated blogger, I see great value in an open comment system and I suspect that some kind of open system will eventually be adopted. However, I don't think any journal has yet stumbled upon the winning model.
As the article says,
In the Nature experiment, authors whose manuscripts were selected for traditional peer review could also opt to have them simultaneously posted on the Internet for feedback by rank-and-file scientists. Journal editors then weighed both sides when deciding whether a paper gets published.My experience with open peer review (through the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics) is similar. While it seems like a good idea, few articles get any public comments. I suspect this is true for a few reasons. First, it can be dangerous to make negative comments without anonymity (and on ACP comments must be attributed) --- which is why most journals implement anonymous reviewers. Second, it takes a lot of time to write a comment, and most people are simply too busy. Another reason the Nature experiment failed was that they did a terrible job publicizing it.The experiment generated high online traffic, about 5,600 page views a week, according to Nature. But it was ultimately canceled because few authors participated and many of the online comments were nothing more than "nice work."
As a dedicated blogger, I see great value in an open comment system and I suspect that some kind of open system will eventually be adopted. However, I don't think any journal has yet stumbled upon the winning model.
Wednesday, December 20, 2006
Tuesday, December 19, 2006
Sunday, December 17, 2006
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