Monday, January 17, 2011

Spencer e-mail to Dessler on 1/14/11


I cannot believe you keep saying "correlations do not prove causality", when you yourself have used a (near-zero!) correlation in your paper to support causality in only one direction!

But we (including Lindzen) are claiming that relatively LARGE correlations, with a clear lead-lag relationship, DO strongly suggest causation.

I do not know how you can, in all honesty, continue this mantra of yours...oversimplifying our position into something like "clouds cause El Nino", or some such thing.

After all, the Southern Oscillation Index is an ATMOSPHERIC index, and for you to claim that changes in the trade winds DON'T cause a change in cloud cover, which can in turn affect ocean temperatures, is treading on thin ice.

And if, perchance, Kevin Trenberth is coaching you on these talking points, I wish he would just come out and defend them himself.


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